So Kaito is now on the table now Miku is coming off soon. On the one hand it means Miku V4x is done and dusted and ready... On the other we got the broken record syndrome going on.
I love update, do you? No really, that wasn't sarcasm its the truth. I love seeing old things give a new lick of paint or lease of life.
Don't get me wrong, but updates don't always add much to the mix and are often only really appreciated when they add a lot of things new to the original. Take for insist Skyrhim HD. Fine you have a good a game, you can update it to HD textures. But not ever fan an ee much of a difference, the game was released in 2011. In contrast to the demand for a Morrowind update, which is confirmed likely will never happen because of how much dialogue and the size it was, there is a larger demand because of how aged the game is. A update now would see Morrowind undergo one heck of a update for this reason. The Skyrhim HD... Well I saw more interest in the fact their now doing the early stage of the next ES game because Skyrhim is still decent enough.
With Vocaloid, we had EVEC enter the mix with... really mixed results. The opinion varies per fan even in Japan on how good it is. While EVEC looks more polished with Miku, you can tell Luka and the Kagamines were a half-assed effort because one is a mess and the other 1/3 the possible outcomes.
I won't say much because honestly... V4 had so many updates at first it was kinda notable when there was nothing new coming our way from Japan. Even now, the lack of new vocals compared to even V2 is noticable, with XSY being introduce developement was likely slowed down. But at one stage there were more new vocals for non-Japanese vocaloids then Japanese. Even now there are only 5 new releases out of about 16 or 17. There were some essential updates, like the Ah Software V2s, because V2 was being retired. But others... that mega 10 voicebank Megpoid one didn't really do it for me, when you consider the Gackpoid V4 release was the same as V3 just configured and improved. They could have gotten away with the same again and saved some licensing fees and time to work on a new vocaloid. Now Una is for many a dream, a new vocal with two voicebanks that when XSY give off a lot of potential, but the Megpoid V4 10 vocals didn't do it.
And here is the broken with the broken record syndrome... EVECs aside for CFM, this is also kinda what the issue too. We get a Luka update, but it was rushed into something new after V4 s announced, resulting in the mess that was. We get a new Kagamine package, but there is no standard vocal and a lot less value for our money then it seems at first glance. We get a Miku release, but it notices how much was put into her that wasn't into the other two, making Miku their best vocal... But at the same tie we had V3 Miku...
So the conclusion is its all about money. This isn't a bad thing. Updating the same 5 vocal is great because their reliable and you can rework the same thing and look how to improve things. But as I wrote on VO, when you know 1/5 of all Vocaloid related software sales amount to the purchase of Miku... It kinda explains why things are what they are. But without something new, you look like your unwilling to try something new. Pokemon at times is this, especially when it focuses only on the first 150 pokemon and ignores the other 550+.
But here is the thing, you can't blame things when its the fans behind the issue. People buy Vocaloid for Miku 1/5 of the time. Even those complaining often (not I though, since I can't stand Miku's voice), often turn out to have bought the Kagamine V4x software or Luka V4x or re in the process of lining up for Miku V4x. So they basically are fueling the current trend, even though their asking for something new, they've already given their money to CFM. Which will encourage them to make Kagamine V-whatever next time. This is why CFM is in a endless loop. Though a sales drop would be dire just the same, so it ends up being the soul reason why the endless loop exists. :-/
But the end of the day is this; it is still harder to release a new vocal over updating an old.
Okay so the other issue I wanna talk about is other synths.
Firstly... I'm sick of the UTAU crowd!
No put the pitch forks down!
Hear me out!
So with UTAU not being updated since 2013, its a matter of time before UTAU becomes really dated. CeVIO is still being worked upon, so is Vocaloid. I have found this year whenever UTAU is raised a lot lot of the defense of it boils down to re-samplers. Fine, but thats not an engine update. You can only polish something for so long before you reach a limit. I don't think the UTAU fans really are taking this in. UTAU has bout 5,000+ producers active at one time compared to the 100,000+ Vocaloid producers, so it was worked out a few years back. So UTAU was never going to overtake Vocaloid with those numbers in mind. It will begin to notice as Vocaloid updates more and more.
Next CeVIO. I've seen people praising CeVIO and saying its only a matter of time, but aside from the freebie version getting 100,000+ downloads... I'm not seeing a big revolution here over Vocaloid. A quick look up on Nico video... 8,600+ vids. Vocaloid is coming up to half a million.
Yeah CeVIO is really overtaking Vocaloid. ¬_¬'
Problem is this, CeVIO sounds like it was made in the early-mid 2000s and has too many unrealistic noises. Its not the worst we've had, UTAU is bad and Vocalina was even worst then UTAU. But its not as clean cut. I think half the issue is by trying to be both singer and talker, you get too much divide. It will take a decade at least to bring both on par with Vocaloids quality.
This is also the issue Vocaloids popularity... Its kinda hard for any synth to get anywhere near Vocaloid right now. I've seen people focus on V4's capabilities, but Vocaloid is also doing well on the iOS, so the issue is Vocaloid has not just 1 front, but at this point 3; PC, Mac and iOS. So they are drawing in money from 3 different sources.
Chipspeech is doing well, but its Alter/ego software is not a good ideal alternative. Chipspeeches format works because the old synths sounded bad. Their mimicking a quality that in itself doesn't exist anymore, giving people something they can't or will never have, a sound that is not likely to ever be rivaled. Alter/ego... Is kinda like CeVIO,it needs another decade... :-/